Service Plays Saturday 11/14/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[dboysaints]

IC Football

8 Unit Play. #228. NFL Game of the Year. Take the Carolina Panthers +1 over the Atlanta Falcons (Sunday @ 1pm est). Well, this game has everything we are looking for. For starters, I was on the Panthers last week when they covered the spread against the New Orleans Saints. Heck, they nearly won that game Outright. Yes, they lost by double-digits but they easily covered the spread and this team once again was winning outright at half. These two teams have met earlier this year. And, the Falcons defeated Carolina by a score of 20-28. It was interesting when that line was originally set back on 9/20/09 as Atlanta was favored by six points and they barely covered winning by eight. Now, that over 75% of the public is on the Falcons on the road here, Carolina is placed as +1 dog. In fact, the line opened up at Carolina as a +2.5 dog and it has slowly come down despite 75% of the public riding the Falcons. Let me phrase it another way. With over three-fourths of the public on the visiting Falcons, the line has gone 1.5 points the other way for the Panthers who are at home and only 25% of the public is on them. That's a lot of smart money folks. The Panthers have revenge. The Panthers are at home. The Panthers are playing better. This is a division game and a must win game for Carolina. Note, the Panthers come off a loss and the Falcons come off a nice win at Carolina. Carolina will absolutely be rocking for this game as the Panthers are playing much better defeating the likes of Arizona on the road outright as a double-digit dog - heck, they won that game by double-digits as they covered that game by a ridiculous 23 points. Now, I am a Falcons fan. But, I am more interesting in making my clients money. I have not lost an NFL Game of the Year in my life and I don't plan on losing it today. Let's roll with the Panthers who are playing much better right now as they face my Falcons at home. The Falcons are just 1-3 on the road although they are a highly talented team, as I believe this is just a bad spot for them. Remember, all we need is Carolina to win here as even a field goal gets the job done for us. Panthers have covered back to back games and the last three of four, they likely cover three straight and four of five after this contest.
4 Unit Play. #111. Take Under 45 between South Florida @ Rutgers (Thursday @ 7:45pm est). The total has steadily come down on this game. I believe this game favors Rutgers for several reasons. For starters, Rutgers has quietly won six of seven since their opening loss to Cincy. That loss was probably one of the best losses for this team as it placed a chip on their shoulder and they have been playing much better. Heck, this team went to Connecticut and won outright as a 7.5 dog. Now, I'm not saying they beat South Florida today, but I am willing to say their defense will make a stand at home. Rutgers has given up just 46 points in their last three ballgames at home and nearly half of those came to a very good Pittsburgh team. South Florida has not been impressive on the road this year outside the Florida State game so I don’t trust them to put a load of points on the board. Even the FSU game they played, the total points scored in that game was 24. South Florida has revenge from last year as well and I think that combined with the fact that Rutgers defense is playing well, this game is likely to go under the posted total. The Under is 7-2 in the Bulls last nine games as an Underdog and the Under is 4-0 in the Scarlet Knight's last four home games.
4 Unit Play. #186. Take Mississippi State +12.5 over Alabama (Saturday @ 7pm est). I'm a Tide fan through and through. But, there are a couple of things that work against my Tide here. For starters, we could have easily lost to Tennessee at home and that game was telling in many ways. Also, this team did manage to win and cover against LSU but that was mainly due to a terrible call by the ump regarding the interception, the fact that Jordan Jefferson got hurt and this team was actually down by 5 going into the fourth quarter giving up 7.5 points. Mississippi State is the same team that lost to Florida by 11 points and certainly, this team can ball up here against a Tide team who I don't believe is as good as Florida. This is an evening game as well which works to Mississippi State and the crowd's hand and their respective crowd will be rocking. After all, the Bulldogs feel that they could have played even better against Florida and certainly they will look to step it up against Bama' for their fifth win of the season. The Bulldogs have covered their last four conference games and are 6-0 ATS when they face a team with a winning road record at home.
4 Unit Play. #162. Take Pittsburgh -7 over Notre Dame (Saturday @ 8pm est). Here is the bottom line as per this game. I think Notre Dame is overrated. I think that Pittsburgh is underrated. This team gets so much hype for someone that has not played much away from home. I understand Notre Dame has revenge from last year when Pitt beat them by a field goal on the road, but nevertheless, many people don't even know that Pitt is a top ten team this year. They are the pride of the Big East along with Cincy at this point in the year. Whenever Notre Dame has played someone of decent competition at home - they have lost. They lost to Navy at home recently and also lost to USC. Now, this team has to go on the road and play someone of decent caliber. I believe Pitt might just lay the wood on this squad today as they beat Syracuse by 27, South Florida by 27 and Navy by 13 at home. I believe they have the goods here to beat the Irish by double-digits as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite by this margin and the Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the Big East and 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.
4 Unit Play. #156. Take Washington State +17.5 over UCLA (Saturday @ 5pm est). Yes, I know Washington State is horrendous. But, UCLA should not be laying this many points to anyone. The line has slowly been coming down as well despite the public being on UCLA. UCLA does not have a high powered offense for starters that can necessarily exceed this spread fast. But, also, this is one of the few conference games that Washington State might have a shot to win. So, naturally, this team will play above its means a bit for this contest. Remember, this team lost to Arizona State by just 13 at home and easily covered the 20.5 spread. This team also defeated SMU Outright at home as a four point underdog. I just believe Washington State realizes that it is now or never for them to win a conference game this year and they will step up as certainly if they can hang within two possessions of Arizona State at home, they can have the goods to hang within the 17.5 against the Bruins as well. The Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games overall and the Cougars are 7-3 ATS as an Underdog of 10.5 or more.
4 Unit Play. #222. Take Tennessee Titans-6.5 over the Buffalo Bills (Sunday @ 1pm est). In Vince I trust. This team is playing with confidence once again as they are 2-6. It seems with Kerry they were going through the motions. Now, with Vince, they come off a huge win over the Niners on the road. It truly showed that this team was is coming back and their win last week was legit. With the Bills getting back Edwards and it will likely take him some time to get back in form, plus with the fact they are banged up quite a bit, and the Titans beginning to get on a roll here, I like the Titans here to cover the touchdown spread. The Titans could very well go 3-6 if they can pull this game off and who knows, as the season progresses on, they very well could finish 8-8 or possibly even 9-7 if the season works out how they need it to work out. I'm not the one to ride with the public here but I don't mind doing it as I think this team is about to get on a run and I want to be on the bandwagon for it. The Titans are indeed 2-0 ATS with Vince as the quarterback this year and I believe they have a good shot at going 3-0 ATS with Vince behind the wheel after this week. The Titans have put up 64 points in the last two weeks and they have a decent shot at covering the -6.5 here.
4 Unit Play. #233. Take Seattle Seahawks +9 over the Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 4:15pm est). I talked about this on my video a bit but long story short, the Seahawks have revenge in this divisional game today. This team was embarrassed by Arizona at home earlier this year in front of their fans. Arizona comes off a big win over the Bears and I think it will be tough for them to get up for this game. More than likely, they will get up for the second half and lollygag a bit in the first half. The Seahawks are still a prideful team and they come off a nice second half against the Lions and I can see Matt H. leading his troops here to play well in Arizona. The line has been coming down steadily in favor of Seattle despite the public being on Arizona as well. Again, division game and revenge can go along way similar to the Panthers game which is our NFL Goy this week. The Cardinals are 4-9 ATS as a favorite by this margin and 7-15 ATS ATS as a home favorite by this margin in their last 22 games.
Good luck,
IC

 

[WINNERS_ONLY]

REPORT FROM VIC MONTE SPORTS
TOP 15 NCAA HANDICAPPERS
As of 11/12/09
#1 INSIDE STEAM (CFB 21-4 ~ 84%)
#2 PRIMETIME (CFB 18-5 ~ 78%)
#3 SPORTS ADVISOR (CFB 6-2-2 ~ 75%)
#4 COWTOWN SPORTS (CFB 17-7 ~ 71%)
#5 JB SPORTS (CFB 18-8 ~ 69%)
#6 FRANK PATRON (CFB 20-8 ~ 71%)
#7 VEGAS CONNECTION (CFB 24-12 ~ 67%)
#8 BILLY BAILEY (CFB 16-8~ 67%)
#9 GATOR (CFB 13-7 ~ 65%)
#10 JIM KRUGER (CFB 33-18 ~ 65%)
#11 EXECUTIVE SPORTSLINE (CFB 38-21 ~ 64%)
#12 DOLPHIN SPORTS (CFB 24-14 ~ 63%)
#13 HEISMAN TROPHY CLUB (CFB 20-12~ 62%)
#14 THE HOTLINE (CFB 40-24 ~ 62%)
#15 MVP POWERLOCKS (CFB 6-4 ~ 60% - 27-12 Since start of '07)

 

[FGators]

Tim Sullivan, NY Post (81-94-2)


Georgia Tech (-10) over DUKE: Last week — a nailbiter at home vs. Wake — was typical for Tech. But the Yellow Jackets love being on the road, where they’ve already covered large at Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Virginia.

PENN STATE (-22) Indiana: The Lions usually make good on their final home game, and the Hoosiers — with almost as many tough losses as we’ve had this year — have to be running out of gas.

Texas (-25) over BAYLOR: Too easy to give up on Texas because they didn’t cover vs. UCF. The defense is still dominant, and this is a virtual home game. Plus, Mack Brown wants to pad Colt McCoy’s numbers for purposes of that stiffarm trophy they give out each December here in New York.

Florida (-15) over SOUTH CAROLINA: The Gators’ best work has been done on the road, and Tim Tebow surely remembers that Steve Spurrier did not vote for him in the Preseason All-SEC balloting.

BOISE STATE (-28) over Idaho: The Broncos — after letting a big lead slip vs. Louisiana Tech — have to make BCS hay on the blue field. Have to.

OREGON (-17) over Arizona State: The Ducks defense gets a breather with the anemic Sun Devils on their way, and the return of LeGarrette Blount should help the offense.

Boston College (-5) over VIRGINIA: Traditionally, we take the Eagles at home, and fade them on the road. But, once November hits, we really strive to not take bad teams, regardless of their value. And Virginia is bad.

Arizona (+2) over CAL: Funky line, what with the Bears struggling and the Wildcats rolling. And while we see the Wildcats losing two games from here on in — vs. Oregon and USC — we think they have enough here.

SOUTHERN CAL (-10) over Stanford: The value cannot be ignored, as the Trojans have been at least 21-point favorites in this series the last seven times. The Cardinal deserve credit for last week, but they’ve yet to win a road game anywhere other than at Washington State.

Notre Dame (+7) over PITT: Did someone say pressure? Look, we know where the Irish stand, but they have some bite as an underdog this year. Some of Charlie Weis’ greatest moments have come at Heinz Field. What’s another?

Alabama (-12) over MISSISSIPPI STATE: Linesmakers have been giving the Tide breaks seemingly all season, and other than a midseason hiccup, they’ve taken advantage. Away from Tuscaloosa, Alabama is 3-0 against the spread, winning by an average of 15.6.

OFF THE GRID
Each week, we take a look at some games that we don’t have to pick as part of Saturday’s Heroes. This week, we see three:
Brigham Young (-25) over NEW MEXICO: The Cougars have been terrible against good teams, but good against terrible teams. And, make no mistake, New Mexico is terrible.

GEORGIA (-4) over Auburn: We like the home team in one of the nation’s most underrated rivalries. The Tigers have been awful the last two times on the road, and it’s tough to see that changing.

Miami (-3) over NORTH CAROLINA: Value play, as Las Vegas likes the little run the Tar Heels are on these days. The road team is flat-out better. Let’s see if it plays like it.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr Bob

Rotation #107 Bowling Green (-4) 2-Stars at -4 or less, 3-Stars at -3.
Bowling Green started at 3 pm Pacific and was the first game released on the release page at 2:45 pm. Rotation #116 Cincinnati (-9) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -13 1/2.
Rotation #120 Illinois (-4) 2-Stars at -6 or less, 3-Stars at -3 or less.
Rotation #149 Nebraska (-3 1/2) 3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars up to -6 1/2.
Rotation #176 Nevada (-7) 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Rotation #182 Oregon State (-12) 3-Stars at -13 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -14.
Rotation #192 Oklahoma State (-4) 2-Stars at -5 or less, 3-Stars at -3.
Rotation #214 Middle Tennessee St (-12 1/2) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars up to -15.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

dover picks

kentucky -2.5 3 units

iowa +17 3 units

fsu + 6 2 units


fla/scu under 43 3 units

nms/haw under 54 2 units

ucla/wsu under 49 1 unit


ats 17-13-2 plus 3 units

totals 14-5 plus 26 units

 

[NCSUWolfpack1]

Thanks for the best bets.. any strong opinions?

Strong Opinion - Rotation #111 South Florida (+2 1/2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +3 at -112 odds or better.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #151 UAB (-1) Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or better.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #194 TCU (-19 1/2) Strong Opinion at -20 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -18 or less.

 

[noteworthy66]

Greg Roberts game of the year is on Oregon -17

He has been on a great run with 5 unit plays. I think he hit 16 in a row now. He list the game of the year as a 7 unit play and says he is 8-1-1 in last 10 game of years.

confirmed <<

 

[saminsocal]

norm hitzges 1310 DFW The Ticket

Norm might be staging a comeback...

He went 10-5 and 6-3 in football last week (16-8 college/pro combined). Unfortunately we's still one game under .500 in pro and so far down in college it's laughable.

Double Plays

WVU +9 vs Cincinnati
Baylor +23.5 vs Texas
BYU -26 vs New Mexico
Notre Dame +7 vs Pittsburgh

Single Plays

SMU -7 vs UTEP
Colorado +5.5 vs Iowa State
Arizona +3 vs California
UCLA -17.5 vs Washington State
Mississippi State +12.5 vs Alabama
Illinois -5.5 vs Northwestern
Wisconsin -8.5 vs Michigan
OSU -12 vs Washington
South Carolina +17 vs Florida
Marshall +3 vs So. Mississippi

 

[knaw_son]

Teddy Covers <hr style="color: rgb(168, 168, 168);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> 11/14/09 CFB Kentucky -3 (137)
11/14/09 CFB Tennessee +6 (145)
11/14/09 CFB Iowa State -5 (154)
11/14/09 CFB 20* Big Ticket: Notre Dame +7 (161)
11/14/09 CFB Arizona +3 (165)
11/14/09 CFB UNLV +17 (179)

 

[FGators]

Colin Cowherd

USC (-points) over Stanford
Mississippi State (+points) vs Alabama
Georgia Tech (-points) over Duke

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maddux

#164 - NCAA - 4 units on USC -10.5
#176 - NCAA - 3 units on Nevada -7
#186 - NCAA - 3 units on Mississippi State +12
#190 - NCAA - 3 units on North Carolina +3.5
#192 - NCAA - 3 units on Oklahoma State -4
#196 - NCAA - 5 units on Georgia -4
#198 - NCAA - 3 units on Central Florida +4.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

pointwise phones

4* oregon, arizona

3* notre dame, hawaii, penn st, wisconsin, kansas st, ohio st

2* west virginia, stanford, louisiana tech, mississippi st, northwestern, oklahoma

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Burns GOY

USC

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power sweep



4* BYU 48-10
3* Nebraska 24-10
3* Marshall 28-21
2* Penn St. 45-10
2* Miami 27-17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mac monster

20 clemson-8
20 virginia +4
20 baylor +23.5
15 stanford + 10.5
15 mich st -3
15 western michigan -12.5
7 louisville - 7.5
7 tcu - 19.5
5 georgia tech -12.5
5 boise st - 31.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Purelock

NCAA-F | Nov 14 '09 (12:00p)

Central Florida +5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS Weekly Blitz:
3* Pitt 38-24
3* Stanford plus points
2* Va Tech 30-14
2* Tennessee outright 28-24
2* Illinois 34-21
2* Boston College 28-14

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SportsInsights Marketwatch

Purdue
Missouri
California

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ace Ace allen eastman - ncaa football

$500.00 Take #116 Cincinnati (-8.5) over West Virginia (8 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)

$600.00 Take #143 Western Michigan (-12.5) over Eastern Michigan (1 p.m., Sat., Nov. 14)

$400.00 Take #122 Louisville (-7) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 14)

$400.00 Take #167 Pittsburgh (-7) over Notre Dame (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)

$500.00 Take #166 Cal (-3) over Arizona (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)